/digital-marketing-pro:growth-plan — Part 8 Flagship Deliverable

The Growth Plan is the flagship client-facing deliverable. It synthesises every internal document produced in Parts 1–7 into a single 11-section narrative answering: "How will we grow this business digitally, and what will it cost?"

Context efficiency

Heavy skill. Grep before Read any referenced file, then Read only matched ranges with offset + limit. List the brand's data dir (~/.claude-marketing/brands/{slug}/, or $CLAUDE_PLUGIN_DATA/digital-marketing-pro/brands/{slug}/ when that env var is set) before opening files. On re-invocation mid-session, skip files already in context.

Specification: growth-plan-template.md (../context-engine/growth-plan-template.md) — the canonical 11-section structure.

Pre-conditions

Before producing the Growth Plan, verify:

1. Parts 1–7 completed in the engagement
2. Four Core Documents at canonical version (v2 if re-runs happened, v1 otherwise)
3. Living Project Instruction File current — reflects the current strategic facts
4. Part 7 Preparation Documents completed — campaign architecture, naming conventions, KPI tree, content pillars, asset inventory, approval chains

If any pre-condition fails, do NOT produce. Instruct the user.

The 11 Sections

Total target length: 20–30 pages. Beyond 30, clients stop reading.

Production process

Step 1: Read source documents

Reading order (canonical version of each):

1. Living Project Instruction File (current truth)
2. Core Doc 3.1 Business & SBU Analysis
3. Core Doc 3.2 Segmentation Framework
4. Core Doc 3.3 Brand Positioning & Communications
5. Core Doc 3.4 DMFlow
6. Part 4 documents (4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4)
7. Part 7 preparation documents (campaign architecture, KPI tree, content pillars)

Step 2: Synthesise — do not re-state

The Growth Plan is synthesis, not concatenation. Do not copy paragraphs from the Core Docs verbatim. Re-write each section in client-facing narrative form, citing the source document for traceability.

Step 3: Apply the three-scenario discipline

Section 11 (Expected Outcomes) presents Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive scenarios per three-scenario-forecasting.md (../context-engine/three-scenario-forecasting.md).

Section 7 (KPI Framework) targets are also presented as three scenarios per KPI.

Step 4: Apply the In-Market vs Out-Market split

Section 5 (Channel Strategy) and Section 6 (Budget & Media Plan) explicitly call out the In-Market vs Out-Market budget allocation per in-market-out-market.md (../context-engine/in-market-out-market.md).

Step 5: Apply the 30/60/90 framework

Section 8 (Implementation Timeline) uses the 30/60/90 phasing per 30-60-90-framework.md (../context-engine/30-60-90-framework.md) for the first quarter, then quarterly milestones thereafter.

Step 6: Output

Save to engagements/{id}/part-08-growth-plan/growth-plan.md. Generate companion exports:

• PDF via the existing pdf-generator.py script
• DOCX via the existing document export utilities

Section-by-section guidance

Section 1: Executive Summary

The CEO reads this. Make it count.

• Key findings (3-5 bullets — most important things from analysis)
• Recommended strategy (1-2 sentences headline)
• Expected outcomes (moderate scenario, with conservative-aggressive band)
• Investment required (total budget; fixed + variable breakdown)
• Timeline (30/60/90 + quarterly milestones in one sentence)
• The single most important thing the client needs to know

Section 2: Business Context

Set the stage for why the strategy is what it is.

• Summary of business analysis (Core Doc 3.1) — what the business is, how it makes money, key strengths and constraints
• Industry landscape — market size, growth trajectory, competitive intensity
• Competitive position — where the brand sits, key competitors, positioning today
• Critical assumptions — major Stone facts and validated Opinions

Section 3: Target Audience

• Primary persona summary in actionable format (6 questions)
• Secondary persona if relevant
• Why these personas were chosen (tie back to TG scoring from 3.2)
• Anti-personas — who we explicitly do NOT target
• For B2B: Decision-Making Unit summary per persona

Section 4: Strategic Positioning

• Positioning statement (the formal one-sentence)
• Brand promise + 3-5 supporting proof points
• The 3-5 messaging pillars
• Tone-of-voice profile with one on-tone vs off-tone example
• Don't-say rules

Section 5: Channel Strategy

• Channel selection summary (in-scope vs deferred per channel-families.md (../context-engine/channel-families.md))
• Per-channel role (which funnel stage)
• Channel sequencing logic (which feeds which)
• In-Market vs Out-Market split with rationale
• Media mix across paid / organic / earned / owned

Section 6: Budget & Media Plan

• Total monthly fixed budget
• Variable budget envelope per fixed-vs-variable-budget.md (../context-engine/fixed-vs-variable-budget.md)
• Per-channel allocation table with rationale
• Quarterly budget pacing
• Year-1 total investment
• Investment vs expected return (LTV:CAC math per unit-economics-framework.md (../context-engine/unit-economics-framework.md))

Section 7: KPI Framework

• Primary KPI (the one number that matters most for the period)
• Secondary KPIs (3-5)
• Per-channel KPIs
• KPI targets in three scenarios
• Reporting cadence per reporting-cadence.md (../context-engine/reporting-cadence.md)
• Attribution model used
• Known measurement limitations

Section 8: Implementation Timeline

30 / 60 / 90-day milestones for the first quarter. Quarterly milestones thereafter.

• Days 1-30 Foundation
• Days 31-60 Validation
• Days 61-90 Optimisation & Scale
• Q2 milestones
• Q3 milestones
• Year-end goals

Section 9: Team & Resource Plan

• Agency / consulting team roles
• Client team roles (especially what client must own)
• External partners
• Approval workflows and SLAs
• Critical dependencies that could delay execution

Section 10: Risk & Contingency

• Top 3-5 risks across market, competitive, regulatory, operational, execution dimensions
• Per risk: likelihood, impact, mitigation strategy, trigger conditions
• Contingency budget (typically 10-15% reserve)
• Decision-making authority for invoking contingency

Section 11: Expected Outcomes

• Three-scenario forecast (Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive)
• Per-quarter forecast (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
• Triggers that move us between scenarios
• What the team will track to know which scenario is unfolding
• Conditions under which the plan would be revised

Quality discipline

1. Every claim cites a source — Core Doc reference with version number
2. Every projection states assumptions — no naked numbers
3. Plain language — the CEO is not a marketing specialist
4. Visual evidence where it helps — charts, scenario tables, timeline diagrams
5. 20-30 page target — beyond 30, clients stop reading
6. Consistency with Yearly Planner — the operational calendar from /digital-marketing-pro:yearly-planner must align with this Growth Plan

After production

1. Save markdown to part-08-growth-plan/growth-plan.md
2. Generate PDF + DOCX exports
3. Mark Part 8 sub-complete (Growth Plan); Yearly Planner completion finishes Part 8
4. Update LIF: Engagement phase = "Strategy approved; Channel Build pending"
5. Brief: "Growth Plan complete. {N} pages. Run /digital-marketing-pro:yearly-planner to produce the operational companion. After client approval, /digital-marketing-pro:engagement next advances to Part 9 Channel Strategy."

Examples

Example 1: First Growth Plan production

SYNTHETIC EXAMPLE — fabricated for illustration; never reuse these numbers. The INR forecast figures below are made up.

User: Produce the Growth Plan for Acme.

Skill response:
1. Verify pre-conditions: Parts 1-7 completed, Core Docs at v2 ✓
2. Pull from source docs ONE AT A TIME via targeted Read with offset+limit (grep first for the section you need, then Read just that range) — the full corpus is ~95K words, so bulk-reading every doc up front blows the per-skill 5K-token budget
3. Synthesise into 11 sections, ~24 pages
4. Apply three-scenario forecasting in Sections 7 + 11
5. Apply 30/60/90 phasing in Section 8
6. Save markdown + generate PDF + DOCX
7. Mark Growth Plan complete (Yearly Planner pending)
8. Brief: "Growth Plan v1.0 produced. 24 pages. Conservative Q1 forecast: INR 1.8 Cr new ARR; Moderate: INR 2.6 Cr; Aggressive: INR 3.4 Cr. Run /digital-marketing-pro:yearly-planner next."

Related skills

• engagement-workflow — orchestrates Part 8
• yearly-planner — companion deliverable that completes Part 8
• four-core-documents — produces the canonical Core Docs that feed the Growth Plan

Related references

• growth-plan-template.md (../context-engine/growth-plan-template.md) — canonical 11-section structure
• three-scenario-forecasting.md (../context-engine/three-scenario-forecasting.md) — Sections 7 + 11
• in-market-out-market.md (../context-engine/in-market-out-market.md) — Sections 5 + 6
• fixed-vs-variable-budget.md (../context-engine/fixed-vs-variable-budget.md) — Section 6
• unit-economics-framework.md (../context-engine/unit-economics-framework.md) — Section 6
• 30-60-90-framework.md (../context-engine/30-60-90-framework.md) — Section 8
• reporting-cadence.md (../context-engine/reporting-cadence.md) — Section 7
• channel-families.md (../context-engine/channel-families.md) — Section 5

---

Supporting file: skills/context-engine/30-60-90-framework.md

The 30 / 60 / 90-Day Framework

No marketing strategy should be planned as a single 12-month block. Breaking the first quarter into 30 / 60 / 90-day phases creates milestones that allow early-stage course correction and prevent slow-rolling failure.

This framework is the default phasing for the Implementation Timeline in the Growth Plan (Section 8) and for the start of every new engagement.

The Three Phases

Days 1–30 — Foundation

Goal: establish the operational base. Get tracking right. Launch on proven channels. Build the assets the strategy depends on.

Standard activities:

1. Tracking infrastructure setup — GA4 properly configured (events, conversions, audiences mirroring the channel strategy), Google Tag Manager firing correctly, ad platform pixels deployed, server-side tracking (CAPI) where applicable, conversion events validated end-to-end
2. Initial campaigns on proven channels — typically Google Search (brand + non-brand high-intent keywords) + retargeting (anyone who visits the site gets retargeted). These are the highest-ROI channels for most businesses; start here while building toward more sophisticated activity.
3. Establish baseline metrics — first 2–3 weeks of data become the baseline against which all future periods are compared. Document carefully.
4. Finalise creative assets — landing pages live, ad creative produced, content calendar planned, brand voice references documented
5. Initial keyword research and competitor monitoring setup — Ahrefs / Semrush projects created, weekly competitor watching automated

What success looks like by Day 30:

• Tracking is verified working end-to-end
• Initial campaigns running with first performance data
• Baseline metrics documented
• Creative production rhythm established
• Team operating cadence (daily / weekly cadences) established

Common Day 30 anti-patterns:

• Tracking not validated → measurement breaks the moment scaling starts
• Launching too many channels at once → impossible to attribute what is working
• Not documenting baseline → no reference point for evaluating future performance
• Skipping competitor monitoring setup → blind to market context

Days 31–60 — Validation

Goal: confirm the initial channels are working. Begin first optimisations. Expand cautiously to secondary channels. Establish reporting rhythm.

Standard activities:

1. Analyse initial campaign performance vs KPI targets — first real comparison of plan vs reality
2. Run first A/B tests — typically on ad copy variants, landing page headlines, CTA wording. Tests run for at least 2 weeks for statistical significance.
3. Expand to secondary channels if primary channels are performing — typically Meta or LinkedIn (depending on B2C vs B2B), email lifecycle flows, organic social posting cadence
4. Begin content marketing and SEO activities — content takes months to rank, so start producing in earnest now even though impact is later
5. First monthly performance report — full structured report (see monthly-report-template.md)

What success looks like by Day 60:

• Primary channels validated as on-track or course-corrected if not
• First A/B test results in hand (some winners, some learnings)
• Secondary channels launched with initial data
• Content engine producing per the plan
• First monthly report delivered to client; client knows where things stand

Common Day 60 anti-patterns:

• Not running A/B tests because "we are still optimising" — without tests there is no systematic optimisation
• Adding too many channels in this phase — Days 31–60 should add 1–2 secondary channels max
• Reactive ad-hoc reporting instead of structured monthly report

Days 61–90 — Optimisation & Scale

Goal: double down on winners. Pause losers. Begin scaling. Launch awareness layer. Establish the optimisation rhythm that will continue indefinitely.

Standard activities:

1. Double down on winning campaigns — Variable budget deployed toward proven below-target CPA campaigns (see fixed-vs-variable-budget.md)
2. Pause or restructure losers — campaigns consistently above target CPA for 3+ weeks get restructured or paused
3. Introduce variable budget recommendations — first formal Variable budget conversation with client
4. Launch awareness-layer campaigns (TOFU) — now that conversion tracking is proven, brand-building investment can be measured for indirect impact
5. Begin email / WhatsApp nurture flows for leads captured in Days 1–60
6. Quarterly strategy review — what is working, what is not, what to change for Q2

What success looks like by Day 90:

• Performance data shows clear winners and losers
• Variable budget mechanism in active use
• TOFU campaigns running for awareness building
• Lifecycle nurture flows active
• Quarterly review completed; Q2 plan refined

Common Day 90 anti-patterns:

• Scaling too aggressively (jumping from INR 1L/day to INR 5L/day overnight) — the platform learning algorithms reset and performance temporarily collapses
• Pausing campaigns too quickly (before 3-week trend is clear) — kills campaigns that need more time
• Skipping the quarterly review — locks in problems that should have been corrected for Q2

Why this phasing

The 30 / 60 / 90 sequencing reflects how digital marketing campaigns mature:

• Foundation work matters disproportionately — tracking errors caught in Day 1 cost INR X to fix; tracking errors caught in Day 90 cost INR 100X (because all data since is suspect)
• Channels need 14–30 days of data before optimisation decisions are reliable — earlier "winners" and "losers" are usually noise
• A/B tests need 14+ days to reach significance for typical conversion volumes
• Content marketing has a 90+ day lead time — start producing in Days 1–60 so content has time to compound by Days 91–180
• Brand awareness investment compounds over months — start TOFU in Day 61–90 so it has time to lift conversion in Q2

Trying to compress the sequence (e.g., scaling at Day 30) consistently underperforms the disciplined sequence.

Beyond Day 90

The 30 / 60 / 90 framework is the first quarter structure. After Day 90, the engagement transitions to a quarterly cadence:

• Monthly: performance review + Variable budget recommendation + tactical adjustments
• Quarterly: strategy refresh — channel mix re-evaluation, budget re-allocation, KPI target reset
• Annually: full Growth Plan refresh + new Yearly Planner

The discipline established in Days 1–90 (tracking accuracy, A/B testing rigor, structured reporting, Variable budget mechanism) carries through every subsequent quarter.

When to deviate from the standard 30 / 60 / 90

• Major product launch in Days 1–30: front-load creative and campaign setup; defer secondary channel expansion until post-launch
• Active competitive crisis: front-load competitive response; defer infrastructure work to Days 31–60
• Highly seasonal business with critical season in Days 1–60: front-load all critical-season activity; treat Days 61–90 as the "Days 1–30 equivalent" for the off-season
• Tracking infrastructure already in place: skip much of Days 1–30 setup; start at Days 31–60 equivalent

The framework is a default, not a constraint. Adapt to engagement specifics, but always document why standard phasing is not being used.

Where the 30 / 60 / 90 lives in the engagement

• Growth Plan Section 8 (Implementation Timeline): the 30 / 60 / 90 milestones for the engagement
• Yearly Planner: the first three months expand the 30 / 60 / 90 phases
• Living Project Instruction File: current phase + day count visible
• Monthly reports: explicitly reference which phase the engagement is in

Related references

• growth-plan-template.md — Section 8 implementation timeline
• monthly-report-template.md — monthly cadence after Day 30
• fixed-vs-variable-budget.md — Variable budget introduced in Days 61–90
• engagement-flow-methodology.md — engagement structure context

---

Supporting file: skills/context-engine/channel-families.md

Channel Families — Part 9 Operational Grouping

Part 9 of the engagement methodology produces up to 17 channel documents. These channels group naturally into seven families based on how they are produced, managed, and measured.

This grouping is operational, not strategic. The strategic taxonomy lives in five-digital-markets.md. The Channel Families groupings tell teams how to organise the work of Part 9.

The 7 Families and 17 Channels

Family 1: Search & Campaign (2 channels)

The upstream layer that informs other channels.

| 9.1 | SEO + AEO | Organic search optimisation across Google, Bing, plus AEO (visibility in ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Claude, Copilot) | | 9.2 | Campaign Strategy | The cross-channel campaign architecture — themes, calendar, naming conventions, the master campaign list |

These two feed everything else. Keyword work from 9.1 informs ad copy and content; the campaign architecture from 9.2 sets the campaign IDs that all paid and social channels reference.

Family 2: Paid Platforms (5 channels)

Direct media buying with measurable spend and outcomes.

| 9.3 | Google Ads | Full stack: Search, Display, Contextual, YouTube, Performance Max | | 9.4 | Meta Ads | Facebook + Instagram, including Reels, Stories, Advantage+ | | 9.5 | LinkedIn Ads | Sponsored Content, Message Ads (InMail), Lead Gen Forms, Dynamic Ads, Thought Leader Ads | | 9.6 | Other Paid | Programmatic display (DV360, The Trade Desk), TikTok Ads, Twitter Ads, Quora Ads, Reddit Ads, podcast/CTV | | 9.7 | Custom Audience Acquisition | The strategy for building first-party audiences (lookalikes, retargeting pools, CDP audiences) that feed all paid platforms |

Family 3: Organic & Influencer (2 channels)

Earned and content-driven distribution.

| 9.8 | Organic Social Media | Posting strategy, content pillars, community management, native format strategy per platform | | 9.9 | Influencer Strategy | Tier strategy (nano/micro/macro/mega), discovery, briefs, contracts, FTC compliance, performance measurement |

Family 4: Marketplace & CRM (2 channels)

Owned commerce and direct-to-customer channels.

| 9.10 | Marketplace Strategy | E-commerce (Amazon, Flipkart), quick-commerce (Blinkit, Zepto), B2B marketplaces (IndiaMART) | | 9.11 | Email + WhatsApp Lifecycle | Email programme (welcome, nurture, abandoned cart, post-purchase, win-back), WhatsApp programme (transactional, broadcast, lifecycle), SMS strategy if applicable |

Family 5: Content, ATL, BTL, PR (4 channels)

Brand-building and earned-media disciplines.

| 9.12 | Utility Content & Whitepapers | Long-form content strategy: thought leadership articles, whitepapers, ebooks, research reports, case studies, calculators, templates | | 9.13 | ATL Strategy | Above-the-line advertising — TV, radio, OOH (out-of-home), print. Not always digital, but planned alongside digital | | 9.14 | BTL Strategy | Below-the-line — events, activations, sampling, dealer engagement, channel partner marketing | | 9.15 | PR Strategy | Earned media, press releases, journalist relations, byline articles, awards strategy, crisis communications playbook |

Family 6: Web + Measurement (2 channels)

The infrastructure that makes everything else measurable.

| 9.16 | Website + Landing Page | Website strategy, landing page architecture, CRO methodology, A/B testing programme, page-speed strategy | | 9.17 | GA4 Setup | Measurement architecture: events, conversions, audiences, attribution model, custom dimensions, BigQuery export, dashboards |

GA4 setup sits in Part 9 (not Part 7 Preparation) because measurement architecture is more strategy-execution mix than pure preparation. It needs the channel strategies to be defined first so the events, conversions, and audiences mirror what the channels are actually doing.

Standard Channel Document Structure

Every Part 9 channel document follows the same four-component structure:

Component 1: Media

The platform-specific strategy:

• Account / property setup (account IDs, properties, ownership)
• Campaign architecture (campaign types, ad group / ad set structure, naming conventions)
• Targeting strategy (audiences, exclusions, layering)
• Bidding strategy (manual / auto / portfolio)
• Budget plan (per campaign, per ad group, daily / lifetime)
• Schedule / pacing (always-on, burst, day-parting)
• Format strategy (image, video, carousel, native, etc.)

Component 2: KPIs

The measurement plan for this channel:

• Primary KPI (the one number that matters most)
• Secondary KPIs (3–5)
• Targets per KPI (with realistic conservative / moderate / aggressive scenarios)
• Reporting cadence (daily / weekly / monthly)
• Attribution model used for this channel
• Known measurement gaps (what cannot be measured + workarounds)

Component 3: Infrastructure

The supporting assets and systems the channel needs:

• Landing pages required (URLs, ownership, CRO test schedule)
• Forms (fields, validation, where leads land in CRM)
• Tracking tags (pixels, server-side tracking, conversion events)
• Creative formats required (specs, dimensions, variations)
• Asset library reference (where creative assets live)
• Tooling required (e.g., a comparison tool, a calculator)
• Compliance assets (disclosures, consent flows, opt-outs)

Component 4: Communication

This component is deferred to Part 10 (Execution Artefacts).

Part 9 channel documents reference what communication will be required (e.g., "this channel needs 12 ad headlines, 8 descriptions, 4 video scripts"), but the actual ad copy / post copy / headlines / CTAs are produced in Part 10.

This separation keeps Part 9 focused on strategy (what) and Part 10 focused on execution (the actual words).

Channel selection logic

Not every engagement uses all 17 channels. Channel selection happens in Core Doc 3.4 (DMFlow) during Part 3, and is validated in Part 5.

Channels not selected are deferred — never placeholder-filled. A Part 9 directory for a B2B SaaS engagement might contain only:

part-09-channel-strategy/
├── 9.1-seo-aeo.md
├── 9.2-campaign-strategy.md
├── 9.3-google-ads.md
├── 9.5-linkedin-ads.md
├── 9.8-organic-social.md
├── 9.11-email-whatsapp.md
├── 9.12-utility-content.md
├── 9.16-website-landing-page.md
└── 9.17-ga4-setup.md

That is 9 channels in scope (out of 17 possible). The remaining 8 are not produced because they are not relevant to this engagement.

If the engagement later expands to add a channel (e.g., adding 9.4 Meta Ads after Q1 results show LinkedIn alone is not scaling), a new channel doc is added at that time.

Production order within Part 9

Channels in Family 1 (Search & Campaign) and Family 6 (Web + Measurement) should be produced first because they inform the others.

Recommended order:

1. 9.16 Website + Landing Page (defines the destination)
2. 9.17 GA4 Setup (defines what gets measured)
3. 9.2 Campaign Strategy (defines campaign IDs all channels reference)
4. 9.1 SEO + AEO (informs keyword and content strategy)
5. 9.7 Custom Audience Acquisition (informs paid channels' audience strategy)
6. Then the rest of Family 2 (Paid platforms) — can run in parallel
7. Then Family 3 (Organic & Influencer)
8. Then Family 4 (Marketplace & CRM)
9. Then Family 5 (Content, ATL, BTL, PR) — can run in parallel with the above

When using parallel agents (Anthropic Agent Teams or similar orchestration), Family 2, Family 3, Family 4, Family 5 can all spawn parallel teammates after the foundational docs (9.16, 9.17, 9.2, 9.1, 9.7) are complete.

Related references

• five-digital-markets.md — strategic taxonomy
• engagement-flow-methodology.md — Part 9 in context
• four-core-documents-spec.md — Core Doc 3.4 DMFlow that selects channels

---

Supporting file: skills/context-engine/fixed-vs-variable-budget.md

Fixed vs Variable Budget

Every monthly budget conversation should distinguish between Fixed and Variable budget. This separation turns budget management from a "can we spend more?" negotiation into a data-backed "here is where additional spend pays off" recommendation.

The Two Buckets

Fixed Budget

Definition: The committed monthly spend the client has agreed to. Covers always-on activity.

What it covers:

• Always-on paid campaigns (brand search, retargeting, baseline social ads)
• Always-on creative production (the steady cadence of new ads / content)
• Always-on infrastructure (martech subscriptions, agency retainer, content management)
• Baseline organic activity (SEO content production, organic social posting)

Characteristics:

• Predictable month to month
• Locked at the start of the period (typically annual)
• Adjusted only at quarterly or annual reviews
• Funds the engagement's core operating tempo

Variable Budget

Definition: Additional budget that can be deployed when performance warrants. Held in reserve, deployed selectively.

What it covers:

• Scaling spend on campaigns delivering below target CPA
• Capturing spike opportunities (a piece of content goes viral, a competitor goes dark, a category trend hits)
• Funding A/B tests on new channels or creative concepts
• Responding to seasonal opportunities (festive surge, industry event, product launch)

Characteristics:

• Held at agency / marketing-team level
• Deployed via monthly recommendation conversation with client
• Authorised on case-by-case basis with data-backed justification
• Typically 15–30% of fixed budget held as Variable reserve

The Monthly Variable Budget Conversation

This is the most consequential recurring conversation in the engagement. Every monthly report includes a Variable Budget Recommendation section that frames the conversation:

Format

## Variable Budget Recommendation — {Month}

### Available reserve: INR {X}

### Recommended deployment:

#### Opportunity 1: {Channel} — Scale below-target CPA campaigns
- Current performance: CPA INR {actual} vs target INR {target} ({% below target})
- Opportunity: increase budget by INR {amount} across [list of campaigns]
- Estimated additional outcome: {leads / customers / revenue}
- Estimated CPA at scale: INR {projected CPA} (still below target)
- Risk: scaling may push CPA up; suggested approach is graduated 15–20% increases per week

#### Opportunity 2: {Channel} — Test new audience / creative
- Current observation: [what we have learned that suggests the test would pay off]
- Test budget: INR {amount}
- Hypothesis: {what we expect to learn}
- Decision rule: [what would make us scale this further vs kill it]

#### Total recommended Variable deployment: INR {sum}
#### Variable reserve remaining: INR {residual}

Approval flow

• The client reviews the recommendation
• Client approves all, some, or none of the recommendations
• Approved Variable spend is added to the month's deployment
• Performance of Variable-funded activity is reported separately the following month

Why this discipline matters

Without the Fixed / Variable separation, marketing budget conversations devolve into one of two patterns:

Pattern A — "Stay within budget":

The agency hits a Fixed budget target every month and never asks for more, even when below-target CPA campaigns could scale profitably. Money sits in the client's account that should be working in the market.

Pattern B — "Always ask for more":

The agency asks for budget increases without specific data backing. The client reflexively says no. Trust degrades. Even legitimate scaling opportunities get rejected.

The Fixed / Variable framework solves both problems:

• Fixed budget is locked and predictable — the client knows what they are committing
• Variable budget creates a pre-authorised mechanism for scaling — the conversation is "should we deploy reserve toward this specific opportunity?" with data, not "give us more money"
• Both sides have skin in the game — the agency must justify Variable deployment with data; the client retains decision authority

Sizing the Variable reserve

Recommended Variable reserve as % of Fixed budget by business stage:

The reserve sits in the marketing budget but is not committed. If unused at month-end, it rolls into the following month's reserve (does not become part of the next month's Fixed).

What does NOT belong in Variable

• Adding new channels that were not in the strategic plan — that is a strategy change, not a Variable budget decision. Belongs in quarterly review.
• Routine creative refreshes — that is part of Fixed always-on production.
• Emergency firefighting that should have been planned for — re-examine the Fixed budget if this is recurring.
• Vague "more spend would help" without specific opportunity and outcome estimate.

Variable spend reporting

The next month's report includes a Variable spend reckoning:

## Prior Month Variable Spend Reckoning

| Variable spend | Approved | Outcome | Status |
|----------------|----------|---------|--------|
| Scale Google Search Brand campaign | INR 1.5L | +47 customers at INR 3,200 CPA (target was INR 3,500) | Approved as ongoing in Fixed for next month |
| Test LinkedIn Document Ads | INR 75K | 12 leads at CPL INR 6,250 (above INR 4,000 target) | Killed; learnings recorded |
| Capture Diwali surge | INR 2L | +ROAS 4.2 vs typical 2.8 | Surge ended; back to baseline |

The reckoning closes the loop and builds institutional knowledge about what kinds of Variable deployment work best for this brand.

Where Fixed / Variable lives in the engagement

• Growth Plan (Section 6 — Budget & Media Plan): sets the year's Fixed budget by channel + the Variable reserve sizing
• Yearly Planner: distributes Fixed budget by month + flags expected Variable deployment windows (festive, product launches)
• Monthly performance report (Section 7): the Variable Budget Recommendation
• Living Project Instruction File: current month's Fixed spend, current Variable reserve remaining

Related references

• growth-plan-template.md — Section 6
• monthly-report-template.md — Section 7 Variable Budget Recommendation
• unit-economics-framework.md — LTV:CAC math that gates scaling decisions
• in-market-out-market.md — split logic that influences Fixed allocation

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Supporting file: skills/context-engine/growth-plan-template.md

Growth Plan Template

The Growth Plan is the flagship client-facing deliverable produced in Part 8 of the engagement methodology. It synthesises every internal document (Parts 1–7) into a single narrative that answers: "How will we grow this business digitally, and what will it cost?"

What makes a good Growth Plan

1. Tells a story — flows logically from diagnosis (what we found) → strategy (what we recommend) → execution (how we do it) → measurement (how we know it is working)
2. Is evidence-based — every recommendation grounded in data from the analysis phases. No "we think" — only "the data shows" with cited source
3. Sets clear expectations — budget, timeline, expected outcomes (three scenarios), what the client needs to do
4. Is understandable by non-marketers — the client CEO who reads this should understand the strategy without a marketing dictionary
5. Is actionable — does not just say what to do; says who, when, with what resources, and how to measure success

The 11-Section Structure

Section 1: Executive Summary

Purpose: The CEO reads this. Make it count.

Length: 1 page maximum.

Content:

• Key findings (3–5 bullets — the most important things from the analysis)
• Recommended strategy (the headline strategic move in 1–2 sentences)
• Expected outcomes (the moderate scenario, with the conservative–aggressive band)
• Investment required (total budget, breakdown into fixed + variable)
• Timeline (the 30 / 60 / 90 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 milestones in one sentence)
• The single most important thing the client needs to know

Section 2: Business Context

Purpose: Set the stage for why the strategy is what it is.

Length: 2–3 pages.

Content:

• Summary of business analysis (Core Doc 3.1) — what the business is, how it makes money, key strengths and constraints
• Industry landscape — market size, growth trajectory, competitive intensity
• Competitive position — where the brand sits, key competitors, positioning today
• Critical assumptions — the major Stone facts and validated Opinions that shape the strategy

This section is grounded in Core Doc 3.1 (Business & SBU Analysis), Part 4.4 (Market Analysis), and Part 4.2 (Competitor Positioning). Do not re-state these documents in full — synthesise the most strategically relevant insights.

Section 3: Target Audience

Purpose: Who we are targeting and why.

Length: 2–3 pages.

Content:

• Primary persona summary (with the 6-question actionable persona format)
• Secondary persona (if relevant)
• Why these personas were chosen (tie back to TG scoring from Core Doc 3.2)
• Anti-personas — who we explicitly do NOT target and why
• For B2B: the Decision-Making Unit summary per persona

This section is grounded in Core Doc 3.2 (Segmentation Framework). The personas presented here are the priority personas, not all explored personas.

Section 4: Strategic Positioning

Purpose: Where the brand sits in the market, how it differentiates, the core message.

Length: 2 pages.

Content:

• Positioning statement (the formal one-sentence)
• Brand promise + 3–5 supporting proof points
• The 3–5 messaging pillars
• Tone-of-voice profile (with one on-tone vs off-tone example)
• What we are deliberately NOT saying (don't-say rules)

This section is grounded in Core Doc 3.3 (Brand Positioning & Communications).

Section 5: Channel Strategy

Purpose: Which channels, why, and how they work together across the funnel.

Length: 3–4 pages.

Content:

• Channel selection summary (which channels are in scope and which are explicitly deferred — see channel-families.md)
• Per-channel role (which funnel stage each serves)
• Channel sequencing logic (which feeds which)
• In-Market vs Out-Market split (with rationale — see in-market-out-market.md)
• Media mix across paid / organic / earned / owned

This section is grounded in Core Doc 3.4 (DMFlow). The detailed per-channel docs (Part 9) are referenced but not reproduced here.

Section 6: Budget & Media Plan

Purpose: Monthly / quarterly budget allocation by channel. Fixed vs Variable. Total investment.

Length: 2–3 pages with tables.

Content:

• Total monthly fixed budget (committed)
• Variable budget envelope (additional budget that can be deployed if performance warrants)
• Per-channel allocation table (with rationale)
• Quarterly budget pacing (how spend ramps quarter to quarter)
• Year-1 total investment
• Investment vs expected return (LTV:CAC math)

This section is grounded in Core Doc 3.4 Step 5 + Step 9. See unit-economics-framework.md for the math.

Section 7: KPI Framework

Purpose: What we measure, targets for each KPI, reporting cadence. How we know it is working.

Length: 2 pages with tables.

Content:

• Primary KPI (the one number that matters most for the period)
• Secondary KPIs (3–5)
• Per-channel KPIs
• KPI targets in three scenarios (Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive)
• Reporting cadence (daily / weekly / monthly / quarterly)
• Attribution model used
• Known measurement limitations

Section 8: Implementation Timeline

Purpose: 30 / 60 / 90-day milestones. What happens first, second, third. Clear sequencing.

Length: 2–3 pages with timeline visual.

Content:

• Days 1–30 — Foundation: tracking infrastructure, initial campaigns on proven channels, baseline metrics, creative assets, content calendar, keyword research, competitor monitoring setup
• Days 31–60 — Validation: analyse initial performance vs KPI targets, first A/B tests, expand to secondary channels, begin SEO + content marketing, first monthly report
• Days 61–90 — Optimisation & Scale: double down on winners, pause / restructure losers, variable budget recommendations, launch awareness layer (TOFU), begin email / WhatsApp nurture, first quarterly review
• Quarter 2 milestones: what should be true by end of Q2
• Quarter 3 milestones: what should be true by end of Q3
• Year-end goals

Section 9: Team & Resource Plan

Purpose: Who does what — agency team, client team, external partners.

Length: 1–2 pages.

Content:

• Agency / consulting team roles and responsibilities
• Client team roles (especially what the client must own — content approvals, brand assets, sales handoffs)
• External partners (creative production, video, photography, influencer agencies, etc.)
• Approval workflows and SLAs
• Critical dependencies that could delay execution

Section 10: Risk & Contingency

Purpose: What could go wrong. What we do if it does.

Length: 1–2 pages.

Content:

• Top 3–5 risks across market, competitive, regulatory, operational, and execution dimensions
• For each risk: likelihood, impact, mitigation strategy, trigger conditions for invoking the mitigation
• Contingency budget (typically 10–15% of total budget held in reserve)
• Decision-making authority for invoking contingency

Section 11: Expected Outcomes

Purpose: Conservative, moderate, and aggressive projections. Never promise a single number.

Length: 2 pages with scenario tables.

Content:

• The three-scenario forecast (see three-scenario-forecasting.md)
• Per-quarter forecast (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4)
• Triggers that move us between scenarios
• What the team will be tracking to know which scenario is unfolding
• Conditions under which the plan would be revised

Total Length Target

A complete Growth Plan typically lands at 20–30 pages. Beyond 30 pages, the client stops reading. Below 20 pages, the depth is insufficient.

If the engagement scope demands more depth, produce a separate Yearly Planner (Part 8 second deliverable) that goes deeper on the calendar / channel cadence.

Quality Discipline

• Every claim cites a source. Sources include: client-provided data (cite document), public sources (cite URL), Core Doc references (cite document and version).
• Every projection states assumptions explicitly. No naked numbers.
• Every recommendation flows from analysis. No conclusions the body does not support.
• Visual evidence where helpful. Charts, tables, scenario diagrams. But nothing decorative.
• Plain language. The CEO who reads this is not a marketing specialist. Marketing jargon must be explained or avoided.

How the Growth Plan is produced

The Growth Plan is not written from scratch — it is synthesised from the internal documents already produced in Parts 1–7. The skill that produces the Growth Plan reads:

• Living Project Instruction File (current truth)
• Core Docs 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 (v2 if available, v1 otherwise)
• Part 4 documents (4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4)
• Part 7 preparation documents
• Performance baseline data if any

And produces the 11-section deliverable in client-facing language.

Use:

/digital-marketing-pro:engagement growth-plan

The output lands at engagements/{engagement-id}/part-08-growth-plan/growth-plan.md and is exported to PDF + DOCX for client delivery.

Related references

• engagement-flow-methodology.md — Part 8 in context
• yearly-planner-template.md — companion deliverable
• three-scenario-forecasting.md — Section 11 forecasting
• unit-economics-framework.md — Section 6 + Section 7 math
• in-market-out-market.md — Section 5 + Section 6 budget logic
• channel-families.md — Section 5 channel taxonomy

---

Supporting file: skills/context-engine/in-market-out-market.md

In-Market vs Out-Market — Budget Split Logic

One of the most consequential frameworks in digital marketing. Most junior marketers do not learn this, and most marketing tools do not enforce it. It fundamentally changes how budget is allocated.

The two states

In-market: People who are actively looking to buy right now. They are searching, comparing, evaluating. They are in the market. They convert at the highest rate but represent a small percentage of the total addressable audience — typically 3–5% at any given time.

Out-market: People who will need your product or service in the future but are not looking right now. They represent 95–97% of your addressable audience. They will not convert today, but if they know and trust your brand when they do enter the market, you win.

Strategic implication

Most digital marketing budget defaults to chasing the 3–5% who are in-market today. That feels logical because:

• Conversions are immediate
• ROAS is high
• Attribution is clear
• The CFO can see direct revenue

But this ignores the 95–97%. If no investment goes into building awareness, trust, and recall with the out-market 95%, the brand has no pipeline of future in-market customers. Eventually the in-market pool dries up because the brand is invisible to them when they enter.

Channel mapping

Recommended starting allocations

Allocations vary by business stage and category, but as a starting point:

The Binet & Field research (IPA, "The Long and the Short of It") finds that the long-term-optimal split is around 60% brand (out-market) / 40% performance (in-market) — though this varies by category and business stage.

How to size the out-market opportunity

The out-market is large but not infinite. Sizing helps decide how much investment makes sense.

Step 1: Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM). This is everyone who could possibly buy your product / service.

Step 2: Estimate the in-market percentage at any given time. For most categories, this is 3–5%. For high-frequency categories (groceries, dining), it can be 10–20%. For low-frequency categories (cars, mortgages, B2B enterprise software), it can be 1–2%.

Step 3: The remainder is the out-market. If TAM is 1,000,000 and in-market is 5%, then in-market = 50,000 and out-market = 950,000.

Step 4: Estimate the cost to build awareness with the out-market. Typically far cheaper per impression than in-market clicks, but requires accumulated frequency (3+ exposures over time) to register.

Step 5: Decide what percentage of out-market the brand wants to be top-of-mind for. Then size the investment accordingly.

How to know if your out-market investment is working

Out-market does not produce immediate ROAS. Measuring it requires different metrics:

• Brand search volume trend — Are more people Googling your brand name? (Track in Google Search Console + Google Trends.)
• Direct traffic trend — Are more people typing your URL directly?
• Branded organic CTR — Is your organic CTR on branded keywords rising? (Indicates better recall.)
• Aided + unaided brand recall surveys — Periodic surveys to track brand awareness.
• Share of voice — Your share of all category-related social/PR mentions.
• Time-to-conversion lengthening — A counter-intuitive signal: as out-market investment grows, more people enter the funnel earlier (longer journeys, more touchpoints).
• Lift studies — Conversion lift tests on Meta, geo experiments where out-market campaigns are paused in some geos and not others.

How this plays in the engagement methodology

Core Doc 3.4 (DMFlow) explicitly documents the in-market vs out-market split decision and the rationale.

The decision is revisited in Part 12 (Continuous Improvement) quarterly: are we under-investing in out-market? Is the in-market pool growing or shrinking?

Performance reports (monthly + quarterly) report performance separately for in-market campaigns vs out-market campaigns to prevent direct comparison (out-market should never be measured by ROAS alone).

Common mistakes

1. Spending 100% on in-market because direct ROAS is highest. Drains the funnel over 6–12 months.
2. Spending too much on out-market too early when the in-market is not yet captured. Wasteful — go after the immediate revenue first, then invest the gains in out-market.
3. Measuring out-market by direct ROAS. It will look terrible because that is not how it works. Use the metrics above.
4. Cutting out-market budget when business slows. This is exactly when out-market matters most — if competitors keep advertising while you go dark, share-of-mind shifts to them.
5. Believing brand and performance are different teams. They are different functions of the same budget. Both must be measured and optimised together.

Related references

• five-digital-markets.md — channel taxonomy
• four-core-documents-spec.md — DMFlow (Core Doc 3.4)
• unit-economics-framework.md — CAC / LTV that gates investment decisions

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Supporting file: skills/context-engine/reporting-cadence.md

Reporting Cadence

Different metrics need different review frequencies. Checking everything daily produces noise-driven overreaction. Checking everything monthly produces slow response to issues. The cadence framework matches review frequency to decision velocity.

The Five Cadences

Daily — What and Why

What gets reviewed:

• Ad spend pacing (are we on monthly budget pace?)
• Major anomalies (unexpected spend spike, conversion drop to zero, ad disapproval, account suspension)
• Campaign delivery status (campaigns paused unexpectedly, creative rejected, tracking errors)

Who reviews: Internal media buyer / performance team. Not client-facing.

Format: Slack digest or dashboard. Text-light, signal-heavy.

Action threshold: If spend is more than 20% above or below daily target → investigate. If conversions drop to zero for any campaign → check tracking immediately.

Common pitfall: Treating daily noise as signal. A campaign with 30% above-target CPA on a single day is not failing — it is one data point. Wait for the weekly trend before action.

Weekly — What and Why

What gets reviewed:

• Each campaign's performance vs target (CPC, CTR, CPA, ROAS)
• Keyword-level performance (Google Ads, SEO)
• Search terms report (queries triggering ads)
• Creative performance (which ads / posts are working)
• Audience performance (which audiences are converting)
• Landing page conversion rates
• Email programme performance (if active)

Who reviews: Internal performance team + agency PM. Not client-facing as a formal report (though insights surface in monthly).

Format: Internal review meeting + spreadsheet / dashboard.

Action threshold:

• Campaign with CPA 50%+ above target for 2 consecutive weeks → restructure
• Keyword with CTR below category benchmark consistently → pause or revise
• Creative with frequency above 3.5 (Meta) → refresh
• Landing page conversion below benchmark → add to CRO test queue

Common pitfall: Acting on insufficient sample size. A keyword with 50 impressions and 0 conversions is not "failing" — it is "unproven." Wait for meaningful volume before pausing.

Monthly — What and Why

What gets reviewed:

• Blended CAC vs target
• Total conversions / leads / pipeline / revenue (depending on KPI)
• Channel-level ROAS
• Website traffic trends (organic, direct, referral, paid)
• SEO ranking changes (top keywords)
• Email programme performance
• Top-performing and bottom-performing creative
• Compliance and brand voice scores
• Variable budget recommendations

Who reviews: Client (primary recipient) + agency.

Format: Structured monthly report (see monthly-report-template.md).

Action threshold:

• Any KPI in red zone → escalation discussion at the next strategy session
• Top wins → consider scaling investment
• Top concerns → specific next-month actions
• Variable budget recommendations → client decision

Common pitfall: Reporting numbers without "why." A monthly report is not a data dump — it is a decision document. Lead with insight; back with data.

Quarterly — What and Why

What gets reviewed:

• Strategic position changes (have we moved up or down vs competitors on key dimensions?)
• Market share / share-of-voice trends
• Brand search volume and direct traffic trends
• LTV:CAC ratio actuals vs assumed
• Cohort performance over the quarter
• Channel mix performance — should mix shift?
• Customer feedback themes
• Major competitor moves
• Strategy alignment — is what we are executing still what we should be executing?

Who reviews: Client leadership + agency leadership.

Format: Quarterly Business Review (QBR) — typically 1.5–2 hour meeting with structured pre-read deck.

Action threshold:

• Strategic drift detected → adjust Yearly Planner
• Major competitor shift → trigger v2 re-runs per decision-matrix-rerun.md
• Channel mix should shift → revise Core Doc 3.4 (DMFlow) as v2.x
• KPI targets need recalibration → update Growth Plan Section 7

Common pitfall: Treating quarterly as a "bigger monthly." Quarterly is for strategic decisions, not tactical optimisation. Tactical issues belong in monthly.

Annually — What and Why

What gets reviewed:

• Year-over-year revenue contribution from marketing
• Annual blended ROAS
• Market changes (category dynamics, regulation, technology shifts)
• Competitive landscape shift
• Brand health (recall, association, sentiment)
• Strategic refresh — what has fundamentally changed?
• Team and resource adequacy for next year's plan

Who reviews: Client leadership + agency leadership + (if relevant) board / investors.

Format: Annual review document + new Growth Plan + new Yearly Planner.

Action threshold:

• Always produces a new Growth Plan + Yearly Planner for the coming year
• May trigger major strategic shifts (new segments, new channels, new positioning) — if so, this is effectively a re-engagement and Parts 1–8 may be re-run
• Always recalibrates LTV / CAC / payback assumptions with full-year data

Cadence collisions

Cadences nest:

• The week of the monthly report includes a weekly review (don't skip — they serve different purposes)
• The month of the quarterly review includes a monthly report (the monthly is the "data update"; the quarterly is the "strategic discussion")
• The quarter of the annual review includes a quarterly review (the quarterly is the data; the annual is the strategic refresh)

Each cadence stays focused on its own purpose. Don't compress quarterly thinking into a monthly report or expand monthly tactical detail into a quarterly review.

Skipping cadences

Skipping a cadence is allowed only with explicit reason:

• Skip a daily check: acceptable if the team is on a planned offday and an automated alerting system covers anomalies
• Skip a weekly review: rarely acceptable; if needed, the next weekly should cover two weeks of data
• Skip a monthly report: never acceptable for active engagements; if absolutely necessary, an abbreviated update must still be sent
• Skip a quarterly review: never acceptable; a missed quarterly compounds into strategic drift
• Skip an annual review: never acceptable; engagement enters auto-renewal mode for another year of stale strategy

How the plugin enforces cadence

The /digital-marketing-pro:performance-report --cadence {daily|weekly|monthly|quarterly|annually} command produces the appropriate report for each cadence.

Background scheduled tasks (when configured) automatically:

• Pull daily performance data (GA4, ad platforms)
• Generate daily anomaly digest
• Produce weekly performance summary
• Schedule monthly report production for the first business day after month-end
• Schedule quarterly review pre-read 5 business days before the QBR
• Schedule annual review prep 30 days before the year-end review

Related references

• monthly-report-template.md — monthly report structure
• growth-plan-template.md — Section 7 KPI Framework defines what gets reviewed
• yearly-planner-template.md — Section 8 quarterly review schedule
• decision-matrix-rerun.md — quarterly strategic drift triggers

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Supporting file: skills/context-engine/three-scenario-forecasting.md

Three-Scenario Forecasting

Every projection in this plugin — revenue forecast, campaign outcome, channel performance, growth trajectory — is presented as three scenarios, never as a single number.

A single number forecast destroys client trust the first time it is missed (which it will be). Three scenarios with explicit assumptions create a band of expectation that is honest about uncertainty and resilient to outcomes within the band.

The Three Scenarios

Conservative

Definition: What results look like if conditions are tough — competition increases, market softens, some campaigns underperform, execution delays occur.

This is the floor. The minimum the client should expect. If results fall below this, something fundamental went wrong and triggers an emergency review.

Assumptions to use for Conservative:

• Take the moderate baseline and reduce key inputs by 20–30%
• Assume one major channel underperforms by 30–50%
• Assume one major risk materialises (e.g., key competitor doubles ad spend, regulatory change, seasonality miss)
• Assume team / approval delays push some initiatives back by a month
• Apply the lower bound of conversion rate ranges, the upper bound of CAC ranges

Moderate

Definition: What results look like under normal conditions with solid execution.

This is the most likely scenario and should be the planning baseline. Most decisions (budget, hiring, expectations setting) should reference this.

Assumptions to use for Moderate:

• Use historical performance benchmarks (yours if available, category benchmarks if not)
• Assume execution runs at typical agency / team competence (not exceptional, not poor)
• Assume no major external disruption
• Apply the midpoint of conversion rate ranges and CAC ranges
• Assume normal seasonality

Aggressive

Definition: What results look like if everything goes well — campaigns outperform, market conditions favour the brand, scaling opportunities materialise faster than expected, no significant execution friction.

This is the ceiling. The upside the client should be aware of but not plan around.

Assumptions to use for Aggressive:

• Take the moderate baseline and increase key inputs by 20–30%
• Assume one or two campaigns produce outsized results (e.g., a content piece goes viral, a campaign concept resonates more than expected)
• Assume favourable market conditions (e.g., favourable regulatory change, competitor weakness, category tailwind)
• Apply the upper bound of conversion rate ranges, the lower bound of CAC ranges
• Assume capacity to capture upside (team is ready to scale fast)

How to present three scenarios

Every forecast presented to the client must include all three scenarios with the assumptions for each.

Format

## Forecast — {Period} {Outcome}

| Scenario | Outcome | Key Assumptions |
|----------|---------|-----------------|
| **Conservative** | {value or range} | {2–3 key assumptions} |
| **Moderate** | {value or range} | {2–3 key assumptions} |
| **Aggressive** | {value or range} | {2–3 key assumptions} |

### Triggers that move us between scenarios

- We move toward Aggressive if: {specific signal 1}, {specific signal 2}
- We move toward Conservative if: {specific signal 1}, {specific signal 2}

### What we are watching

- {Metric or indicator 1 — what we will track to know which scenario is unfolding}
- {Metric or indicator 2}

Worked example — Q1 Revenue Forecast for a B2B SaaS engagement

## Forecast — Q1 2026 New ARR from Marketing-Sourced Pipeline

| Scenario | New ARR | Key Assumptions |
|----------|---------|-----------------|
| **Conservative** | INR 1.8 Crore | Google Ads CPL stays at INR 1,800 (current); LinkedIn Ads CPL rises 20% due to Q1 budget influx in category; close rate stays at current 18%; one large enterprise deal slips into Q2. |
| **Moderate** | INR 2.6 Crore | CPLs stay flat across channels; close rate improves to 22% as sales team adopts new lead-scoring; large enterprise deal closes in Q1 as forecast. |
| **Aggressive** | INR 3.4 Crore | Q1 industry conference produces 40+ qualified leads (vs typical 25); a planned product release closes the most-objected-to feature gap and lifts close rate to 27%; large enterprise deal closes plus one upsell. |

### Triggers that move us between scenarios

- Toward Aggressive: Industry conference attendance > 200, ad CPL drops 15%+, close rate above 25% by week 6
- Toward Conservative: Industry conference cancelled or under-attended, ad costs rise 25%+, sales team capacity drops below planned

### What we are watching

- Weekly: pipeline-generated, MQL-to-SQL conversion, ad CPL trend
- Monthly: close rate, enterprise deal stage progression, channel mix actuals vs plan

Why three scenarios matter

1. They prevent over-promising. A single number is interpreted as a commitment. A range with assumptions is interpreted as honest forecasting.

2. They make assumptions visible. When the moderate scenario assumes a 22% close rate but the actual is 17%, the conversation is "the close-rate assumption was wrong, here is why" — not "your forecast was wrong, you under-delivered."

3. They invite collaboration. The client can challenge assumptions. "Why do you assume CPLs will stay flat? We are launching a new product that should pull bidders into the category." This produces a better forecast collaboratively.

4. They define triggers for action. If we hit Conservative-level signals by mid-quarter, the team knows to pivot. If we hit Aggressive-level signals, the team knows to scale.

5. They protect against attribution disputes. When results land in the Conservative-to-Aggressive band, the conversation is about which assumptions held vs not — not about whether the forecast was wrong.

What three scenarios are NOT

• Not "low / medium / high estimate" with no rigor. Each scenario must have explicit assumptions.
• Not a way to hide uncertainty by giving a wide band. If Conservative is 30% of Moderate, the model is too uncertain — refine it before presenting.
• Not a ceiling on accountability. Aggressive is what is achievable with great execution; the team is still accountable to Moderate as the planning baseline.
• Not a substitute for tracking. The point of triggers and "what we are watching" is to know early which scenario is unfolding so the team can react.

When to update scenarios

• Monthly: at the monthly performance review, scenarios for the remainder of the quarter are recalibrated based on actual data
• At major events: product launches, competitor moves, market shifts, regulatory changes
• At quarterly strategy refresh: full re-forecast for the next quarter with new scenarios

Where forecasts live in the engagement

• Core Doc 3.4 (DMFlow), Step 9: strategic implications include forecast directionally
• Growth Plan (Part 8): Expected Outcomes section presents the three scenarios formally
• Yearly Planner (Part 8): annual forecast as three scenarios per quarter
• Monthly performance reports: actuals vs scenarios + recalibrated forward forecasts
• Quarterly strategy refresh: full re-forecast for the next quarter

Related references

• growth-plan-template.md — Expected Outcomes section uses three scenarios
• unit-economics-framework.md — CAC / LTV inputs to forecasts
• monthly-report-template.md — actuals vs scenarios reporting

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Supporting file: skills/context-engine/unit-economics-framework.md

Unit Economics Framework

Every marketing strategy ultimately resolves to one question: does the revenue from a customer exceed the cost of acquiring them, by enough margin to sustain and grow the business?

If the answer is no, no amount of clever creative or sophisticated targeting will save the strategy. If the answer is yes, every channel decision becomes a question of how to scale efficiently.

This framework is the foundation. Every recommendation in this plugin — channel selection, budget allocation, campaign approval, scaling decisions — checks back to unit economics.

The Core Metrics

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

CAC = Total marketing and sales cost / Number of new customers acquired

What goes into Total marketing and sales cost:

• Ad spend (Google, Meta, LinkedIn, TikTok, programmatic, etc.)
• Agency fees
• Marketing team salaries (loaded with benefits)
• Marketing software costs (CRM, CDP, MAP, analytics, design tools, etc.)
• Content creation costs (writers, designers, videographers, freelancers)
• Event costs (sponsorships, booths, hosted events)
• Sales team costs (for B2B, if marketing generates the leads sales convert)

How to calculate CAC at multiple levels:

• Blended CAC: total marketing+sales cost / total new customers. Headline number. Use for board reporting.
• Channel CAC: for each channel, what is the per-customer cost. Use for channel optimization.
• Segment CAC: for each customer segment, what is the per-customer cost. Use for segment prioritization.
• Cohort CAC: for each acquisition cohort (week or month), what was the CAC. Use for trend analysis.

Skills that recommend channel changes always cite Channel CAC, not Blended CAC.

Lifetime Value (LTV)

LTV = Average revenue per customer × Average customer lifespan × Gross margin

The gross margin is critical — without it, LTV overstates the contribution to overheads and growth.

Methods for calculating LTV:

• Cohort-based: Take a cohort of customers acquired N months ago. Track their cumulative revenue. The longer N, the more accurate but the older the data.
• Probabilistic: Use survival analysis or BG/NBD models. Better for subscription businesses.
• Predictive: Use machine learning on customer attributes to predict LTV at acquisition. Useful for early-stage prediction.

For an early-stage business without historical data, estimate LTV with explicit assumptions:

LTV estimate: ARPU INR 2,400 per month × estimated 14-month tenure × 65% gross margin = INR 21,840 Assumption: 14-month tenure based on category benchmark; revisit when 12-month cohort data is available.

The estimate is acceptable as long as the assumptions are explicit and revisitable.

LTV:CAC Ratio

LTV:CAC ratio = LTV / CAC

Health thresholds (industry standard):

The 3.0 threshold is the minimum for sustainable business. Above 3.0 is healthy. Above 5.0 often signals under-investment — the business could grow faster by spending more.

Payback Period

Payback Period = CAC / (Monthly contribution from average customer)

For subscription businesses, the payback period is critical. A long payback period means cash is tied up in customer acquisition; a short payback period means cash recycles quickly into more acquisition.

Health benchmarks:

For non-subscription businesses (one-time purchase), payback is the contribution from the first purchase divided into CAC.

Where these metrics live in the engagement

• Core Doc 3.1 (Business & SBU Analysis), Step 4 — captures the unit economics for each SBU
• Core Doc 3.4 (DMFlow), Step 5 — uses LTV:CAC to set channel budget allocation
• Living Project Instruction File — the current blended CAC, LTV, ratio, payback are visible in the "Currently True" section
• Monthly performance report — performance is reported by Channel CAC vs target, with trend
• Quarterly strategy review — full unit economics audit, adjustments to source docs if needed

How recommendations check back to unit economics

Every channel recommendation, every budget allocation, every campaign approval should verify:

1. Does this maintain LTV:CAC ≥ 3.0? If not, recommendation must address why anyway (e.g., long-term brand investment with deferred ROI).
2. Does this stay within payback tolerance? If not, recommendation must address cash-flow impact.
3. Is the LTV assumption still valid? If channel mix shifts toward lower-LTV segments, blended LTV may decline — recalculate.

Skills that make recommendations without showing this check produce gut-feel suggestions that may destroy unit economics.

Common mistakes

1. CAC without sales-team cost (B2B). If marketing generates the leads but sales closes them, sales cost is part of CAC. Excluding it makes marketing look more efficient than it is.

2. LTV using gross revenue instead of margin-adjusted revenue. A INR 10,000 sale at 30% gross margin contributes INR 3,000 to LTV — not INR 10,000. Margin matters.

3. Calculating LTV from a single product purchase when the business depends on repeat. For subscription / consumable businesses, LTV must include retention assumptions.

4. Using industry-average LTV instead of brand-specific LTV. Industry averages are starting points; brand-specific data always overrides.

5. Not revisiting unit economics as the business scales. CAC typically rises as you scale (audience saturation, more expensive bid environments). LTV may fall if scaling pulls in lower-quality customers. Recalculate quarterly.

6. Ignoring payback in cash-constrained businesses. A business with INR 3 crore in the bank and INR 50 lakh monthly burn cannot sustain a 24-month payback period regardless of how good the LTV:CAC looks.

Tools the plugin uses

The plugin includes scripts that compute and track unit economics:

• scripts/roi-calculator.py — campaign-level ROI with attribution model selection
• scripts/clv-calculator.py — cohort-based and probabilistic LTV models
• scripts/budget-optimizer.py — channel budget reallocation honoring LTV:CAC constraints
• scripts/revenue-forecaster.py — revenue forecasting with seasonality
• scripts/revenue-simulator.py — Monte Carlo revenue simulation with scenarios
• scripts/churn-predictor.py — churn risk prediction informing LTV calculations

These scripts are called by skills as needed. They produce machine-readable output that Skills consume.

Related references

• four-core-documents-spec.md — Core Doc 3.1 Step 4 (Unit Economics)
• in-market-out-market.md — budget split decisions
• decision-framework.md — multi-dimensional decision making
• three-scenario-forecasting.md — projecting unit economics